Edwin Encarncion, what’s going on?

So, Eddie E, former third baseman, now turned first baseman/DH is having a lot of success in 2012. As a result of that success, he’s put a signature on a contract that will pay him 29 million dollars, minimum, over its 3-4 year term. The obvious question, which is now worth 29 million dollars, is whether or not EE has made real changes that make the Blue Jays think he’s going to stay a consistently productive hitter.

I am not a hitting instructor, so all the mechanical changes and tweaks that he may have made, are not something I can speak to. However, the hitter cards over at Brooks Baseball can give us a very real insight into whether his results have changed over the past few years. I’m going to take a look a 2010, 2011 and 2012 in a few different ways, and see if there is evidence of a changed approach for Encarnacion.

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WPA: A stat for everyone (except Francisco Cordero)

I understand a lot of the resistance from old-school baseball people and fans to advanced stats. I really do. Advanced stats can be confusing and, because of both their naming and the math that goes into them, intimidating. There’s also the problem that, dammit, I just want to talk baseball and not what somebody might theoretically do over the next so many years, especially considering this or that park factor.

Can’t we just talk about what happened last night?

Can’t we just talk about where our team is in the standings and how they got there?

If the above describes how you feel, I sympathize. I’m not in total agreement, but I do share your feelings to a certain degree. And I have good news — if you’re like me and seeking a middle ground, at least — there is an advanced stat just for you! Continue reading

End of May, where all my batters at? (AL East Edition)

So, since it is the end of the month, I thought we could take a look at the offenses around the AL East and see how they compare to one another. I’m going to go team by team, and pick out the highlights and lowlights for each lineup. Maybe this will help you with your all-star ballot. Or maybe you’ll just punch our your home team’s starting nine anyway. Whatever, I’m sure about 75 players will be selected for each league anyway.

I’m using a really simple chart, with at bats and 2 other stats, wRC and wRC+. The wRC stand for Weighted Runs Created. And in-depth explanation of these 2 numbers is here at Fangraphs, which also happens to be the site from which I gathered data to create these handy tables. wRC is a way of counting offensive contributions, it is a complete total of walks, hits, homers, strikeouts, etc. It is expressed as a running total, if you have a player who has accumulated 120 wRC by the end of the season, you are a happy manager. Since it is the end of May, we’re about 1/3 of the way through the season. That means 35-40 wRC is indicative of a hitter having a great year.

wRC+ is a normalized stat, which means a 100 wRC is a league average level of production. If wRC+ is 120, you have created 20% more runs than the average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances. You can have just a few plate appearances, and have a wRC over 100, as long as your times at bat have been productive ones.

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Eddie E is aching.

I will begin by saying that I am not a doctor, and have no inside information regarding the health of any Toronto Blue Jays players. Recent information has come to like that Edwin Encarnacion is not feeling 100%.

See, he’s clearly in pain here. And so is that fan behind him.

We were told last night that Edwin Encarnacion was DHing because he had a sore back.

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Fight or flight: Impaling Lind’s spirit?

I know it’s en vogue to analyze teams and players strictly by the statistics available about them. There is definitely something to do be said for the value of statistics and basing organizational decisions on as much information as humanly possible. Math(!) is a good thing.

But, as much as I value math and people who are really, really good at it, I do think some people have a tendency to take the numbers too far. Baseball players are human beings and there’s a definite human element to their performance — unless the player in question is a Roy Halladay-like cyborg, of course.

Except for 2009 and a brief period of last season, Adam Lind has proven that he is not a good MLB hitter. Despite that, the team keeps running him out to first base everyday and, until very recently, he was batting cleanup on a daily basis.

Why does the team keep running Sleepy out there despite his obvious deficiencies? Well, he has shown that he has the potential to crush MLB pitching and he’s currently signed to a very team-friendly contract, so why not give him the chance to figure things out?

And, even if he didn’t have those things going for him, who would the team replace him with? David Cooper? Ha!

The only legitimate internal option is the trifecta of moves oft-mentioned by fans: Travis Snider promoted and installed in left field; Eric Thames moved to DH; and Edwin Encarnacion taking over first. In theory, I like those moves. In reality, it doesn’t seem likely as team management seems committed to finally giving Snider some stability and leaving him at one level (Triple-A) for an extended period.

Human beings, when threatened, generally go into fight or flight mode. Confront the problem head on or run away from it and hope for the best. Some, but not all, lapse into a sort of contentment when they’re not really threatened.

I won’t pretend to know what goes on in Lind’s head, but given his previous comments about how much he hates working out, I wouldn’t be surprised if he tends to feel content when he’s not pushed. Struggling at the plate? “Big whoop, what are they going to do? Call up Cooper?”

If that’s his attitude — and it may well not be, but hear me out — maybe he needs a push.

The team may have given him that push on Thursday.

At 37, Vladimir Guerrero is a shell of his former self. But the shell of a likely Hall of Famer is better than what Lind’s been doing lately. That Toronto signed the Impaler to a minor-league deal can only be viewed by Lind as a threat to his job security.

If Guerrero can prove in the minors that he’s got anything left in the tank, the team could easily improve its offence by moving Encarnacion to first and letting Vladdy DH while Lind rides the pine. Not only would it be a good move in terms of improving the offence, it’d have to be a PR score, too. Employing the services of a Montreal Expos legend isn’t exactly going to hurt.

Of course, there is always the possibility that Lind, sensing that he’s threatened, fights for his job and does whatever it takes to get as close to his 2009 form as he possibly can. If he does, the team wins on this deal with Vladdy.

If Lind doesn’t improve and Guerrero ends up making the Jays a better team, the team wins on this deal with Vladdy.

If Lind doesn’t improve and Guerrero doesn’t have anything left to contribute, well, Vladdy’s deal is for peanuts, relatively speaking, so the team doesn’t lose on this deal with Vladdy.

It’s a win-win-draw deal if I’ve ever seen one!