Fastballs Illustrated

I like baseball on TV. Not that going to a game isn’t a thrill, because the arc of the ball, as viewed from field level, is unique to me. There is something special about the tumbling seams on a pop-fly, or the rapidly receding circle of a double into the gap. I think that those views are special to me because I only go to a few games a year, at most. My season tickets are with my LCD tv.

Pitching, on television, is nothing like pitching live. I know, because I umpired minor (kids and teenagers) baseball for three years. It is the closest you can possibly get to pitching and catching, and not be responsible for touching the ball. There is a very real hiss to a baseball coming in at anything over 50mph. The impact into the mitt of a 60 or 70 mph fastball is something that reverberates in your ears. You can feel it when it hits the mitt. To lean into that at MLB game speed would make me flinch.

I know that my eyes and ears could not tell me the whole story as an umpire. All I had to focus on was where the ball was when it hit the front edge of the plate. That isn’t really hard to do, with a little practice. Measuring what happened before and after that never really entered my head at the time.

I also know that the single outfield camera does not convey or measure what is going on at home plate. It just isn’t in the right place, or at the right distance to really tell how and where a pitcher releases the ball.

Combine these methods with the play-by-play and colour announcers on TV, and everything gets jumbled up. Some fastballs have ‘late life’, some have ‘hard sinking action’, some are ‘backdoor cutters’. Cute, but how do you tell which of those descriptions is anywhere near accurate? None of the guys in the booth has crouched down to catch the pitcher in question, they are relying on a story from someone else. And if you’ve ever tried to convey a story through two or three people, you know how any description can get jumbled up.

Pitch f/x to the rescue. If you are not familiar with pitch f/x, there is a primer here. All of my data comes from the very comprehensive data at brooksbaseball.net. Very briefly, 2 cameras are positioned in each park to give accurate data about the behavior of every pitch thrown in the Major Leagues.

I have 2 charts to compare the fastballs of the current five members of the Toronto Blue Jays rotation. As of this writing, they are Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Henderson Alvarez, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison.They are identified by their initials in the charts.

Behold, Chart 1

Speed and Spin Direction

Taken as an average from all pitches thrown in 2012. This is pretty much just speed differences. I was hoping, when I input the data for spin direction, that the sinkers would cluster apart from the four seamers. Not so lucky. And can you tell I haven’t made any charts since my second year at community college? But enough about me. Four seamers are blue data points, sinkers (usually thrown with 2 seam grip), are in red. Kyle Drabek is the only one who throws enough cutters to be of any note. That’s the yellow diamond. Notable points, Henderson Alvarez is the hard thrower of the bunch, not Brandon Morrow, as you may have guessed. Drabek next, then Morrow. These are all above 94mph and are very good fastballs, especially for MLB starters. The other odd thing is Drabek’s two data points are very close together in the MPH, unlike a typical pitcher, changing to the sinker grip doesn’t cost him even 0.5 mph.

Behold, chart the second.

Movement, including gravity.

This chart shows us movement from the catcher’s perspective. It tells us that Rickey Romero may, in fact, be left-handed. I’ll check into that later. Also, the two purple circles are Romero’s and Alvarez’s sinkers. Getting ground balls happens naturally, as even mistakes are carried down under the bat quite often. The green circle is Morrow’s ‘rising’ fastball, and it makes it easy to see why he’s a natural fly ball pitcher. Here we can cross-check if Drabek’s sinker (which we saw him throwing extremely hard, above) has had any of its movement cancelled out by his extra velocity. I would have to say no. The distance between his straight and sinker data points is similar to both Morrow’s and Hutchison’s. Also, Drabek’s cutter does, in fact, cut its way back across the middle of the chart with a little reverse break.

So, next time somebody tells you who they think throws the hardest, now you’ve got some pictures to back up your own arguments. This also gives an idea of how far from straight even a ‘straight’ four-seam fastball can be.

If anybody would like to see any other pitch types broken down this way, or two pitchers and their pitch mixes put head-to-head, put it in the comments, and I’ll try to cook something up.

Brandon Morrow, and his new toys.

I’m going to say this right off the top, again, for those of you who don’t know. My favourite Blue Jay pitcher is Brandon Morrow. Even before he sent seventeen Tampa Bay Rays back to the dugout holding a letter “K” in their hands, I really loved to watch him pitch. He throws anywhere from 92 to 97mph. Sometimes his slider comes over the plate at 88mph. Seriously. Remember Brad Mills? He huffed the ole fastball up there at around 86. Mr. Slider and Mr. Fastball could get in a race, slider running around a big bend in the road, because he has to, you know, he’s a Slider. He still beats the silly little straight riding Mr. Fastball to the destination.That’s pretty ‘sick’, as the kids used to say.

I could go on about my admiration for the raw and deadly repertoire of Mr. Morrow, but I’ve got to save something for my inevitable follow-up posts, so let’s get on with it. Brandon Morrow had a makeover, and like that thing that my wife did with her hair a couple of years ago, I’m not sure what to think. He’s had a few starts to show off his new look, and I know one thing for sure. He doesn’t seem as sexy as he did. It’s because he doesn’t strike people out anymore, and we know strikeouts are sexy. At least, that’s what I though I knew about the new Brandon Morrow. Lots of people did, I’m sure. This person wrote about it. Then the new Brandon Morrow rolled into the Rogers Centre and struck out nine Mariners in 6 innings. Which is a letter “K” for everybody in the lineup, if they want to share it out like good friends do.

Which is why I’d like to talk about Clayton Kershaw.

Not that I’m giving up on Morrow, but I’d like to talk about Kershaw, as a path to saying something about Morrow. Besides, Clayton Kershaw is plenty interesting in his own right. For example, did you know he won the National League Cy Young Award last year? He did. I kind of assume that they just give that award to Halladay or Lincecum after a game of rock-paper-scissors, but they must have changed that process last year.

Back to Clayton Kershaw. He strikes out lots of people, walks very few, and threw a very accomplished 233 innings last year. He has found his keys to success, it would seem. I might have chosen Roy Halladay for this comparison, but everyone knows Halladay is a cyborg from the future, and who wants to compare a mere human being to a cyborg? I looked Kershaw up on Brooks Baseball, and, after wading through a few of the graphs, I assembled this picture from four of Kershaw’s 2012 starts.

Four starts from 2012, Horizontal and Vertical movement.

As the caption says, these are all the pitches Kershaw threw in four different starts this season. Vertical movement is on the vertical axis, Horizontal movement is on the horizontal. Different colours indicate different pitch types. Brooks has several other ways of breaking down a pitching performance, which could only be put into one graph if you could draw in 6 dimensions. My photo editing program doesn’t have a button for that, so we’ll go with 2 dimensional graphs for now. First, please note the similar overall shape of each game. The game in the lower left was played in Houston, where the pitch cameras that make this system work may be calibrated a little differently. Even considering that, we have the same thing happening each game. A cluster of rising fastballs in green at the top, the tighter the cluster, the more identical each pitch is on arrival. Why do I call this a rising fastball? Funny thing, there is so little sink on these fastballs, compared to the effect of gravity on a normally thrown ball, that the fifteen inches of ‘rise’ in the Brooks Baseball graph cannot contain them. These fastballs care not for the limits of your standard graph! That’s just ridiculous. Remind me never to step in the box against Kershaw. There are a few changeups in yellow just to the right of the fastball cluster, these fade a little more than the fastball. He throws a good selection of biting sliders, shown in orange, and about four or five big curveballs that have a huge drop on them. I’m sure he mixes those in just to keep everybody honest in the batter’s box. Four pitches, four similar sized clusters, Clayton Kershaw is going to ride this horse until it drops. And why not? He’s 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA as I write this.

Now, since I went to all that trouble to look at the very steady methods of Mr. Kershaw, allow me to do the same with one Brandon Morrow.

What lovely pitch clouds we have here! Now, 2 of these starts are away, and two are at Rogers Centre, so the two on the right will be more consistent than the other two. However, without looking at the scatter diagrams, we can see from the legend, that Morrow uses between 4 and 6 different pitches per start. Now, that 6th pitch may be some confusion on the part of the pitch f/x computer, which assigns a name to pitches to the best of its ability. Morrow was throwing a cut-fastball last year, and the computer may be trying to find it where he hasn’t thrown it at all. There is more going on here than computer error, though. Sometimes the curveballs have more sideways break than the sliders, other times they are right about the same. Ptich f/x also sees four seamers, 2-seamers an sinkers, sometimes overlappnig clusters, sometimes not. That nice tight cluster of fastballs that Kershaw shows us is only there in his first start, on the upper left graph, with Morrow. His fastball will slide across the zone in a variety of ways. This might make him effectively wild some days. Other days he might have trouble with the heater not being where he wants it all the time.

Even in his most recent start against the Mariners he has three curveballs that didn’t drop at all. Flat breaking pitches are often the kind of pitches that get turned into extra base hits. Morrow has not been shy about using his new pitches, but the results seem to show that he hasn’t been able to count on getting them to do what he wants all the time. I’m not surprised by that, but it’s nice to have the pictures to back it up.

The new Brandon Morrow has spoken about getting quicker outs and being efficient. I think the idea of pitching to contact, of getting deeper into games, is a valid one. Where a fireballer like Morrow might want to leverage his ability to get swings and misses, is only after he’s found himself in trouble. The knock against Morrow, in the past, has been his inability to work out of trouble with runners on base. So, what’s been happening when he’s been in trouble?

In the game in Kansas City, Morrow recorded three strikeouts.Two of them came with a runner on third base. The third was against a hitter who had homered of Morrow in an earlier at-bat. Against Seattle, he struck out nine, as I said before, but Seattle has the second highest strikeout total in the AL right now, that’s going to happen. Whenhe needed strikeouts, what did he do? Every time Seattle had a runner in scoring position, Morrow came up with a strikeout. Maybe he’s trying to be his own high leverage relief pitcher. That’s an idea from this Fangraphs article about Roy Halladay. If it is part of the mentality, of rearing back to make the high effort pitches only when necessary, Morrow is certainly blessed with the arm to do that.

What am I getting at here? Well, I think I’ve come to believe two things. The first one is that the old Brandon Morrow is gone. I don’t think he’ll ever find himself in a position to strike out 17 ever again. The second thing is that the new Brandon Morrow has not arrived yet. I don’t think we’ll really know what he’s done with himself until much later. Maybe after the All-Star Break? He’s not been afraid to play with his new pitches, but he really hasn’t broken them is yet.

It is unusual, and interesting, to see this kind of change in a pitcher. It seems to be what happens after surgery, and many try to re-invent themselves after abject failure. Ask R.A. Dickey. Morrow hasn’t hit bottom, or had his arm fall apart, though. He’s made these changes because he thinks he can be better for them. That’s really the kind of talent and thought that make me happy he plays for the team I cheer for every day.

Brandon Morrow, then and now.

The Blue Jays acquired Brandon Morrow over the winter of 2009-2010. He came to the Blue Jays with a wicked fastball, and almost total inability to find the strike zone. He walked 26 batters in his first 35 innings. Then Bruce Walton and he decided it would be prudent to drop his arm slot.

Morrow’s fortunes turned around, and he’s been the Blue Jays’ de facto ‘Number 2′ starter ever since. He has had his ups and downs, but after a strong finish to last season he seemed mentally ready to take the ‘Ace’ label and run with it. He signed a 20 million dollar extension over the winter of 2011/2012. His quotes from that day, (go ahead, click the link, I’ll be here when you come back), indicate his confidence was quite high. Mine would be too, on the day I got extended.

I was curious to see what Brandon Morrow had actually changed in the 400 or more innings he’s logged since 2010. Especially since there was all the excitement last year over his having developed a cut fastball.

So, just for fun, I grabbed 2 months from Brooksbaseball.net and took a look at Morrow’s pitch selection, and the kinds of outcomes he’s generated from his pitches. I took June of 2010, the first full month after the arm slot change, and the first 2 starts of 2012.

First, the pitch mix.

First off, the sinker has disappeared. From 18% of the time to 2%. It also doesn’t sink nearly as much when he does use it, with three inches less vertical break than back in the old days. Second, the four-seam fastball is much straighter, with only 2 inches of horizontal movement now, compared to almost 7 inches in 2010. The rest of his pitch usage is quite similar, and the change-up has really been falling off the table, with 7 more inches of vertical break. The cutter? Don’t see it on the chart do we?

Now, Brandon started 5 games in June of 2010, and only 2 so far this month, so when we chart outcomes, 2012 is only looking at a good game against the Indians, and a homer happy night at Rogers Centre against Baltimore. I should probably revisit this chart in May.

From the top down, the first thing I would note is that the lack of movement on the fastball has had a huge impact on Morrow’s results. When the whiffs go from 28% to 11%, all that contact has to go somewhere. Same number of grounders, and a 15% jump in fly balls means a bunch of balls leaving the yard. The change-up used to be one of his better groundball options, but even with the extra break I noted above, two-thirds of those that are hit are getting lifted in the air too. Also interesting, its only a 46 pitch sample over these 2 months, but none of Morrow’s curveballs were put in the air, maybe that’s his better double-play inducing pitch.

So, to summarize, the fastball looks almost as hard, but much too straight.I would think he has, indeed made an effort to master the change-up, but it hasn’t got him a single whiff yet this year. Looks like the cutter was an experiment that’s been put on the shelf for now.

I am fascinated by Morrow and his electric arm, so I’ll be sure to come back to this in a couple of weeks and see what adjustments he’s made. Hope you’ll join me.

Today in good deals for the Blue Jays

For the last two seasons in Toronto, most Jays fans seem to have fallen into one of three camps when it comes to Brandon Morrow:

  1. Dude is AMAZING!!1
  2. He’s got great stuff, but what the hell? Why is he so frustrating?
  3. Morrow’s pitching? UGH. WHY BOTHER WATCHING? He SUCKS.

While I think hope nobody reading this falls into that third group, the second group is, rightfully, highly populated. In fact, I find myself in that second group most times, but Morrow’s got something that makes me and a lot of other people believe that he could make the leap into the AMAZING!!1 category — and he could do it as soon as this season.

Even the experts at Fangraphs think highly enough of Morrow to draw some comparisons between him and Justin Verlander. That’s some pretty high praise for Morrow and if the comparison turns out to even be fractionally valid, Toronto’s in a good place for at least the next four years.

Why four years? Because the Blue Jays just signed Morrow to a three-year extension worth $20 million. The deal also includes a $10-million option for the 2015 season.

At just under $7 million a season, Morrow’s a steal — even if he doesn’t improve all that much.

Antihero

What Brandon Morrow did with the goat, I don’t want to know. But whatever it was, it worked: Jo-Jo Reyes got a win. His winless streak ended at 28 starts — tied for longest all-time with Oakland’s Matt Keough, who did it in 1978-79.

As meaningless as a winless streak is, I’m sure Jo-Jo feels good to get it out of the way. Good on him.

I was only able to watch random bits and pieces of the game — and they were all when the Jays were on offence — so I’ve got nothing to say whatsoever about how Reyes pitched, but I did manage to catch the bottom half of the 4th, when Toronto’s offence exploded for 7 runs. Two things stood out to me. They were both base running decisions.

1) Bases loaded, Rajai Davis on second, Corey Patterson at bat. Patterson hits what looks like a double play to Indians second baseman Orlando Cabrera, but Cabrera misplays the ball and ends up facing the outfield. Davis gets to third, glances at Cabrera fumbling with the ball and breaks for home. He scores without so much as a throw coming his way.

2) Jose Bautista on second, Juan Rivera at the plate. Rivera grounds the ball to the left side, Bautista gets looked back to second, but breaks for third as soon as the ball is thrown to first. The first baseman sees this and launches the ball back to third after disposing of Rivera. I don’t know if the throw was slightly off or the third baseman made a bad tag attempt, but Bautista makes it in safely.

Davis’s break for home was very smart baserunning. When I see the Hustle & Heart ads, that’s the kind of thing I like to picture as the hustle. (What I picture as the heart? Nothing that happens on the diamond.)

Bautista’s decision was dubious. It was a risky play that barely worked out. On top of that, Toronto was already winning by 7. It’s the type of thing that could be perceived by the opposition as disrespectful — and it comes the day after John Danks got all huffy.

But you know what? If Bautista’s competitive fire drive him to be somewhat unlikeable for people who aren’t Toronto fans, I’m OK with that. Guy’s doing what he has to do to produce at an extremely high level. Keep producing and you can do whatever you want out there, Jose.

Besides, I enjoy rooting for the antihero.

Links!

• Time writes about Jose Bautista. This is interesting because the headline is false by the time you’re done reading it.
• Ghostrunner on First pulls thoughts about John McDonald out my brain and does much better with them than I ever could.
• A smart man calls the Rogers Centre “dreary and passé.”
• A different smart man takes the common “E5 should never play the field; he is a DH” argument and convincingly turns it into “E5 is not a Major Leaguer.”
• Toronto Life dirties itself up with some sport talk. Corey Patterson even! One problem though: They seem to think he plays centre field.
• Joe Carter did some great things in Toronto, but was he overrated in general? Yes.
• Bautista wears Chucks!