New-Fan Week: In Baseball, the Numbers Don’t Stop

Editor’s note: A recent reddit post — this one to be exact — really stuck with me. The author is an Irishman who’s looking to get into baseball and, not knowing where to start, he asked for help. Well, this week at Infield Fly, we aim to help everybody’s who’s just getting into the game. If you’re a new fan, if you’re interested in becoming a fan or if you know somebody who think would love the game and you want to point them our way, hopefully this week will have something for you. We plan to cover the how and the why for new fans.

Today, resident stats guru coolhead2011 goes over the basic stats and numbers needed to understand the game.

Baseball players do not, in fact, carry calculators around in their back pockets. In fact, most players, when interviewed about a streak they are on, or counting stat they’ve accumulated, will claim they don’t pay attention to that sort of thing at all. I assume some of them are lying, because many players are also fans of the game, and when talking about the game, it often comes down to comparing players to one another. The baseball gods have given us a game from which we can draw so many numbers, and the discussions based on those numbers never end.

So, let’s start with the numbers a new fan needs to understand, just to know what’s happening on the field, and then we’ll look deeper into how those numbers have grown into a way to evaluate players. Continue reading

Brett Lawrie deserves to be suspended

“I didn’t mean to hit him, your honour; I just meant to fire a warning shot.”

At some point, likely today, Brett Lawrie will be suspended for his actions during the ninth inning of last night’s loss to the Tamp Bay Rays. Lawrie deserves whatever sort of punishment MLB metes out and, unless the punishment is harsh, he probably deserves more than he gets.

Lawrie says he didn’t mean to hit the ump with his helmet. I believe him. But intent only matters up to a certain point.

Hitting an umpire — even if unintentional, even if the ump just called you out on two borderline pitches you thought should be balls — is completely inexcusable.

Lawrie must pay for his actions and he should do whatever he can to make good with the umps so that any lingering anger isn’t taken out on his teammates in the form of questionable calls going against them.

GIF courtesy of Ian, the Blue Jay Hunter.

The man, the legend, Jose Canseco

You know how Jose Canseco gets on Twitter and is all like “I’m the best at everything. I challenge you to challenge me”? Or, in the man’s own words:

Well, a guy in Ottawa took Canseco up on his offer to challenge him and this past weekend, Canseco was in Ottawa to take part in a home-run derby with Evan Malamud, appliance salesman.

Canseco lost the derby.

In fairness, Canseco had to hit baseballs out of the park and Malamud had to hit softballs over a much shorter softball fence. But still, Canseco lost.

I was unable to find video of the derby itself, but I did find this gem: Canseco’s media scrum. He says some interesting-in-a-crazy-way things: Twitter is like acting (presumably implying that he’s not really crazy); he believes he could still lead the majors in home runs if some team would just give him a chance already; and he’s developed an anti-aging drink that really works, you guys.

Without further ado, the man himself:

Sammy Sosa, odd trivia

Samuel Peralta Sosa led the National League in home runs two times. This isn’t that unusual, home run hitters tend to double up in that regard quite often. Sixteen different players have led their league at least twice since 1970.

Samuel Peralta Sosa hit 63 or more homers 3 times. He is the only player to have managed this unusual feat. Even though his reputation is somewhat tarnished by the outside factors during the offensive explosion in the late 1990s, early 2000s, you can’t deny it’s a unique feat.

Now here’s the two things that I find really weird. First, Sosa never led his league in a year where he hit 63 or more homers. Second, the three years in which he hit 63, 64, and 66 homers are the only 3 years in the history of MLB in which it was possible to hit 60 or more home runs and not lead the league.

Sammy Sosa had the strangest timing of any home run champ, ever.

Fastballs Illustrated

I like baseball on TV. Not that going to a game isn’t a thrill, because the arc of the ball, as viewed from field level, is unique to me. There is something special about the tumbling seams on a pop-fly, or the rapidly receding circle of a double into the gap. I think that those views are special to me because I only go to a few games a year, at most. My season tickets are with my LCD tv.

Pitching, on television, is nothing like pitching live. I know, because I umpired minor (kids and teenagers) baseball for three years. It is the closest you can possibly get to pitching and catching, and not be responsible for touching the ball. There is a very real hiss to a baseball coming in at anything over 50mph. The impact into the mitt of a 60 or 70 mph fastball is something that reverberates in your ears. You can feel it when it hits the mitt. To lean into that at MLB game speed would make me flinch.

I know that my eyes and ears could not tell me the whole story as an umpire. All I had to focus on was where the ball was when it hit the front edge of the plate. That isn’t really hard to do, with a little practice. Measuring what happened before and after that never really entered my head at the time.

I also know that the single outfield camera does not convey or measure what is going on at home plate. It just isn’t in the right place, or at the right distance to really tell how and where a pitcher releases the ball.

Combine these methods with the play-by-play and colour announcers on TV, and everything gets jumbled up. Some fastballs have ‘late life’, some have ‘hard sinking action’, some are ‘backdoor cutters’. Cute, but how do you tell which of those descriptions is anywhere near accurate? None of the guys in the booth has crouched down to catch the pitcher in question, they are relying on a story from someone else. And if you’ve ever tried to convey a story through two or three people, you know how any description can get jumbled up.

Pitch f/x to the rescue. If you are not familiar with pitch f/x, there is a primer here. All of my data comes from the very comprehensive data at brooksbaseball.net. Very briefly, 2 cameras are positioned in each park to give accurate data about the behavior of every pitch thrown in the Major Leagues.

I have 2 charts to compare the fastballs of the current five members of the Toronto Blue Jays rotation. As of this writing, they are Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Henderson Alvarez, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison.They are identified by their initials in the charts.

Behold, Chart 1

Speed and Spin Direction

Taken as an average from all pitches thrown in 2012. This is pretty much just speed differences. I was hoping, when I input the data for spin direction, that the sinkers would cluster apart from the four seamers. Not so lucky. And can you tell I haven’t made any charts since my second year at community college? But enough about me. Four seamers are blue data points, sinkers (usually thrown with 2 seam grip), are in red. Kyle Drabek is the only one who throws enough cutters to be of any note. That’s the yellow diamond. Notable points, Henderson Alvarez is the hard thrower of the bunch, not Brandon Morrow, as you may have guessed. Drabek next, then Morrow. These are all above 94mph and are very good fastballs, especially for MLB starters. The other odd thing is Drabek’s two data points are very close together in the MPH, unlike a typical pitcher, changing to the sinker grip doesn’t cost him even 0.5 mph.

Behold, chart the second.

Movement, including gravity.

This chart shows us movement from the catcher’s perspective. It tells us that Rickey Romero may, in fact, be left-handed. I’ll check into that later. Also, the two purple circles are Romero’s and Alvarez’s sinkers. Getting ground balls happens naturally, as even mistakes are carried down under the bat quite often. The green circle is Morrow’s ‘rising’ fastball, and it makes it easy to see why he’s a natural fly ball pitcher. Here we can cross-check if Drabek’s sinker (which we saw him throwing extremely hard, above) has had any of its movement cancelled out by his extra velocity. I would have to say no. The distance between his straight and sinker data points is similar to both Morrow’s and Hutchison’s. Also, Drabek’s cutter does, in fact, cut its way back across the middle of the chart with a little reverse break.

So, next time somebody tells you who they think throws the hardest, now you’ve got some pictures to back up your own arguments. This also gives an idea of how far from straight even a ‘straight’ four-seam fastball can be.

If anybody would like to see any other pitch types broken down this way, or two pitchers and their pitch mixes put head-to-head, put it in the comments, and I’ll try to cook something up.